The new face of war: A female general commands the U.S. air campaign in Libya 2011

This is the general overseeing the American part of the air campaign in Libya. Air Force Maj. Gen. Margaret Woodward, commander of the 17th Air Force, based in Germany, seems to be an expert in refueling and mobility, which is probably why she was picked for Africa Command, whose planners likely expected the command mainly to be doing humanitarian relief missions. Instead she is overseeing airstrikes by B-2 bombers, F-15E fighter/bombers, and F-16 CJ jammers.

To my knowledge, this is the first time a woman has ever overseen an air campaign.

U.S. Treasury Identifies 14 Companies Owned By Libya’s National Oil Corporation As Subject To Sanctions

WASHINGTON--(ENEWSPF)--March 22, 2011.  The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) today identified 14 companies owned by Libya’s National Oil Corporation, as subject to sanctions pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 13566.

The National Oil Corporation is the centerpiece of Libya’s state-owned oil apparatus, and controls a network of companies involved in oil exploration, production, and sale.  E.O. 13566 blocks all property and interests in property of the Government of Libya and its agencies, instrumentalities and controlled entities within U.S. jurisdiction, whether specifically identified by OFAC or not.  U.S. persons are prohibited from engaging in business with any Libyan state-owned entity. Today’s identifications are intended to aid financial institutions in meeting their obligations under E.O. 13566.

“The Libyan National Oil Corporation has been a primary funding source for the Qadhafi regime,” said OFAC Director Adam J. Szubin. “Consistent with UN Security Council Resolution 1973, all governments should block the National Oil Corporation's assets and ensure that Qadhafi cannot use this network of companies to support his activities.”

Treasury will continue monitoring the National Oil Corporation’s operations in Libya.  Should National Oil Corporation subsidiaries or facilities come under different ownership and control, Treasury may consider authorizing dealings with such entities.

OFAC identified the following as companies owned by of Libya’s National Oil Corporation:

1. Arabian Gulf Oil Company
2. Azzawiya Oil Refining Company
3. Brega Petroleum Marketing Company
4. Harouge Oil Operations
5. Jamahiriya Oil Well Fluids And Equipment
6. Mediterranean Oil Services Company
7. Mediterranean Oil Services GMBH
8. National Oil Fields and Terminals Catering Company
9. North African Geophysical Exploration Company
10. National Oil Wells Drilling and Workover Company
11. Ras Lanuf Oil And Gas Processing Company
12. Sirte Oil Company for Production Manufacturing of Oil and Gas
13. Zueitina Oil Company
14. Waha Oil Company  ​

Source: treasury.gov

Libya War/ANALYSIS - Libya is biggest gamble yet for France's Sarkozy

* Sarkozy determined to be seen leading action on Libya

* Sarkozy ranked 3rd in some opinion polls for 2012 election

* President risking backlash if Libya mission goes awry

By Catherine Bremer

PARIS, March 22 (Reuters) - Plagued by ruinous poll ratings a year before a likely re-election battle, French President Nicolas Sarkozy pulled off a public relations coup by leaping into the driving seat of the intervention in Libya.

His glory could be short-lived though if what first looked like a heroic operation to save civilians ends up pulling France and its partners into a lengthy and complex foreign conflict.

A rift between Western powers who back the Libyan operation and developing countries who oppose it -- and bickering about who should run it -- raises the spectre of disastrous consequences for the action-man leader if things go awry.

"This is a gamble he's taken and I think it was mainly for domestic reasons," said political analyst Jacques Reland of the Global Policy Institute. "He's a man who doesn't let an opportunity go by, but this could end up as a quagmire. It's very risky and this could be make or break for him."

Waging a foreign war is not an obvious way to win support among the conflict-wary French, but Sarkozy had made it clear he would show leadership over Libya to make up for clumsy handling of the revolts in Tunisia and Egypt.

Muammar Gaddafi made an appropriate target too after Sarkozy came under fire in France for rolling the red carpet out to the Libyan leader in 2007 and letting him pitch his Bedouin-style tent by the Elysee Palace.

That state visit, Gaddafi's first in decades to a Western leader, came after Sarkozy helped get five Bulgarian nurses freed from a Libyan jail in one of a string of swashbuckling foreign missions since he came to power in 2007.

Opinion polls show Sarkozy has now fallen behind far-right leader Marine Le Pen as well as veteran leftists. Ratings below 30 percent make him one of France's least popular presidents ever.

Sarkozy saw France's year-long presidency of the G20 and G8 as opportunities for international grandstanding but has been hampered by a tough debate on his global monetary reform plans and by his poor early handling of unrest in North Africa.

Now he hopes the sight of him summoning world leaders to Paris and being the one to come out and announce action to save Libyans from bloodshed will fill French hearts with national pride.

"The president loves crises with their concomitant surge of adrenalin," Dominique Moisi of the French Institute for International Relations was quoted as saying in a blog.

"Sarkozy is taking a high but legitimate risk that he can retake the moral (and political) high ground."

FAILURE COULD HURT

The possibility of his Libya initiative coming back to bite him is looming larger as the dust settles from the first French strikes, which were minutes away from happening as Sarkozy announced on Saturday that fighter jets were over Libya.

His decision to charge ahead with action within hours of U.N. approval has set off a raft of divisions. Opposition is mounting from China, Russia, Brazil, India and others, and the West is arguing about what role NATO should take in the operation as the United States steps back.

Even before France deployed its jets, Sarkozy's breathless pace of action, coming out early to recognize the rebel opposition and mooting the idea of targeted strikes, irked Germany, which ended up declining to participate.

A chief influence on Sarkozy this month was philosopher Bernard Henri-Levy, who flew to Libya on a fact-finding mission and telephoned Sarkozy from the rebel stronghold of Benghazi.

Sarkozy unveiled the operation in a solemn speech alone at a lectern and left world figures like U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to arrange private media briefings.

"I do not like the way it was stage-managed," said Reland.

"What makes me ill at ease is whether there was really a danger of massacres in Benghazi. We don't know enough about these insurgents and we don't know enough about Libya."

On Tuesday, Sarkozy made a flying visit to a French air base on the Mediterranean island of Corsica with his defence minister.

France defended itself on Tuesday against reports of rifts with its allies, saying its armed forces chief had told its partners in full about the strikes it planned in Libya.

"The heads of the armed forces of France, Britain and America were in close coordination. Our counterparts were kept up to date on all our intentions and did not show any objections," armed forces spokesman Thierry Burkhard said.

International divisions aside, it is unclear whether Sarkozy stands to gain as much from a successful Libyan intervention as he stands to lose if it all goes wrong.

A survey conducted by pollster IFOP on March 10, before the U.N. resolution on a no-fly zone, found only 30 percent of respondents would support French military action in Libya, compared with 55 percent who in a 2001 poll backed action in Afghanistan. A fresh IFOP poll on Tuesday found 66 percent of French people supported the coalition's Libya intervention.

"It's not the main preoccupation of the French," said IPSOS head Jean-Francois Doridot. Preoccupied by economic gloom, voters might worry about repercussions by terror groups.

Surprisingly few opposition politicians have accused Sarkozy of engineering the operation's timing for political reasons, one exception being National Front founder Jean-Marie Le Pen who is harbouring dreams of seeing his daughter as French president.

"Everyone knows that when things aren't going very well on the home front that's when you get the flag out, sound the bugle," Le Pen told France 2 television on Tuesday.

"You bang the drum to play on people's patriotic reflexes but for us, at any rate, it will not work at all." (Additional reporting by Alexandria Sage and John Irish; Editing by Janet Lawrence)

Libya/War: Latest Pics from battle – Ultimas fotos da guerra em Libia – 21/03/2011

Vehicles belonging to forces loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi explode after an air strike by coalition forces, along a road between Benghazi and Ajdabiyah March 20. (Goran Tomasevic/Reuters)

Libyan rebels carry an injured comrade following a failed attempt to take the town of Ajdabiya from Muammar Qaddafi's forces on March 21 as news reports said Libyan government forces pulled back 60 miles from rebel-held Benghazi after Western-led air strikes destroyed much of their armor. (Patrick Baz/AFP/Getty Images)

A Libyan jet bomber crashes after being shot down in Benghazi on March 19 as Libya's rebel stronghold came under attack, with at least two air strikes and sustained shelling of the city's south sending thick smoke into the sky. (Patrick Baz/AFP/Getty Images)

A rebel fighter supporter shoots into the air as she reacts to the news of the withdrawal of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi's forces from Benghazi March 19. (Goran Tomasevic/Reuters)

Rebel fighters ride on a tank captured from Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi's forces in Benghazi March 19. (Goran Tomasevic/Reuters)

Libyan army soldiers stand on a building, destroyed in what the government said was a Western missile attack, inside Bab Al-Aziziyah, Qaddafi's heavily-fortified Tripoli compound March 21. (Zohra Bensemra/Reuters)

A supporter of Muammar Qaddafi shows pieces of shrapnel from what the government said was a Western missile attack on a building inside Bab Al-Aziziyah, Qaddafi's heavily-fortified Tripoli compound March 21. (Zohra Bensemra/Reuters)

A man fires his pistol in the air during a celebratory rally after the United Nations approved a no-fly zone over the country on March 18 in Tobruk, Libya. Libya declared an immediate cease-fire after the UN vote but reports indicated that Moammar Qaddafi's forces were still shelling two cities. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

A rebel fighter shows hand grenades found on fighters loyal to Muammar Qaddafi after they were killed by rebel fighters in Benghazi March 19. Qaddafi's forces pushed into the rebel-held city of Benghazi on Saturday, defying world demands for an immediate ceasefire. (Goran Tomasevic/Reuters)

Aisha Qaddafi, daughter of Muammar Qaddafi, holds a Libyan flag as she greets supporters at Bab Al-Aziziyah in Tripoli March 19. Thousands of Libyans packed into Muammar Gaddafi's heavily fortified Tripoli compound on Saturday to form a human shield against possible air strikes by allied forces. (Zohra Bensemra/Reuters)

Libyan girls receive gifts from their school during celebrations in their classroom of Children's Day, which was marked in the Libyan capital Tripoli on March 21. (Mahmud TukiaAFP/Getty Images)

A soldier from the Libyan army stands at Green Square in Tripoli March 20. Western forces pounded Libya's air defenses and patrolled its skies on Sunday, but their day-old intervention hit a serious diplomatic setback as the Arab League chief condemned the "bombardment of civilians". (Zohra Bensemra/Reuters)

Libyans mourn during the funeral of the people who were killed after air strikes by coalition forces, at the martyrs' cemetery in Tripoli March 20. (Ahmed Jadallah/Reuters)

Libyans mourn during the funeral of the people who were killed after air strikes by coalition forces, at the martyrs' cemetery in Tripoli March 20. (Ahmed Jadallah/Reuters)

A man stands in front of a burning vehicle belonging to forces loyal to Muammar Qaddafi after an air strike by coalition forces, along a road between Benghazi and Ajdabiyah March 20. (Goran Tomasevic/Reuters) #

A tank belonging to forces loyal to Muammar Qaddafi explodes after an air strike by coalition forces, along a road between Benghazi and Ajdabiyah March 20. (Goran Tomasevic/Reuters)

A Libyan rebel holds the rebellion flag as he steps over wrecked military vehicles belonging to Moammar Qaddafi forces hit by French warplanes on March 20. Dozens of Qaddafi military vehicles were destroyed in morning air strikes by the coalition west of Benghazi, as a semblance of normality returned with cars out on the road and street markets reopened in the rebel bastion. (Patrick Baz/AFP/Getty Images)

A rebel fighter shouts in front of a burning vehicle belonging to forces loyal to Muammar Qaddafi after an air strike by coalition forces, along a road between Benghazi and Ajdabiyah March 20. (Goran Tomasevic/Reuters)

A Libyan rebel smiles next to wrecked military vehicles belonging to Moammar Qaddafi forces hit by French warplanes on March 20. (Patrick Baz/AFP/Getty Images)

An elderly rebel fighter gestures in front of a destroyed tank belonging to forces loyal to Muammar Qaddafi after an air strike by coalition forces in Benghazi March 20. (Goran Tomasevic/Reuters)

Men weep beside the bodies of family members killed during Saturday's offensive by forces loyal to Muammar Qaddafi in the northeastern city of Benghazi on March 20. (Finbarr O'Reilly/Reuters)

A man looks at a destroyed tank belonging to forces loyal to Muammar Qaddafi after an air strike by coalition forces, along a road between Benghazi and Ajdabiyah March 20. (Suhaib Salemk/Reuters)

Rebel fighters gesture in front of burning vehicles belonging to forces loyal to Muammar Qaddafi after an air strike by coalition forces along a road between Benghazi and Ajdabiyah March 20. (Goran Tomasevic/Reuters)

Curious Libyan onlookers take pictures of dead African teenagers, members of Muammar Qaddafi's forces hit by airstrikes by French warplanes in al-Wayfiyah west of Benghazi, on March 20 in al-Wayfiyah. (Patrick Baz/AFP/Getty Images)

Rebel fighters point their weapons at a vehicle at a checkpoint during a gun battle in downtown Benghazi on March 20. Sporadic explosions and heavy gunfire broke out in central Benghazi at around 10 p.m. and lasted about 40 minutes, a Reuters witness reported from the city. (Finbarr O'Reilly/Reuters)

A rebel fighter points his gun at a suspected Qaddafi supporter as other rebels try to protect the suspected supporter, on a road between Benghazi and Ajdabiyah on March 21. (Goran Tomasevic/Reuters)

Libyan rebels retreat with their injured under heavy fire following a failed attempt to take the town of Ajdabiya from Moammar Qaddafi's forces on March 21. (Patrick Baz/AFP/Getty Images)

Mourners react during the funeral of Libyans killed by forces loyal to Muammar Qaddafi, in Benghazi March 21. (Suhaib Salem/Reuters)

A young girl flashes the victory sign during a celebratory rally after the United Nations approved a no-fly zone over the country on March 18 in Tobruk. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

People flee the Libyan city of Benghazi through the town of Al-Marej on March 17. Libya warned it could target all Mediterranean air and sea traffic in the case of foreign military intervention. (Patrick Baz/AFP/Getty Images)

A Libyan girl fleeing Benghazi sits in a bus on March 19 as the exodus of civilians began shortly after the first air strikes hit Benghazi. (Patrick Baz/AFP/Getty Images)

A Libyan family, who fled their house after shelling from troops loyal to Muammar Qaddafi, takes shelter in a university in Tobruk, east of Tripoli, March 19. (Suhaib Salem/Reuters)

“Operation Libya” and the Battle for Oil - The geopolitical and economic implications of a US-NATO

Prof Michel Chossudovsky
Global Research

The geopolitical and economic implications of a US-NATO led military intervention directed against Libya are far-reaching.

Libya is among the World’s largest oil economies with approximately 3.5% of global oilreserves, more than twice those of the US.

“Operation Libya” is part of  the broader military agenda in the Middle East and Central Asia which consists in gaining control and corporate ownership over more than sixty percent of the world’s reserves of oil and natural gas, including oil and gas pipeline routes.

“Muslim countries including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Yemen, Libya, Egypt, Nigeria, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, possess between 66.2 and 75.9 percent of total oil reserves, depending on the source and methodology of the estimate.” (See Michel Chossudovsky, The “Demonization” of Muslims and the Battle for Oil, Global Research, January 4, 2007) .

With 46.5 billion barrels of proven reserves, (10 times those of Egypt), Libya is the largest oileconomy in the African continent followed by Nigeria and Algeria (Oil and Gas Journal). In contrast, US proven oil reserves are of the order of 20.6 billion barrels (December 2008) according to the Energy Information Administration.  U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Reserves)

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Note

The most recent estimates place Libya’s oil reserves at 60 billion barrels. Its gas reserves at 1,500 billion m3. Its production has been between 1.3 and 1.7 million barrels a day, well below its productive capacity. Its longer term objective is three million b/d and a gas production of 2,600 million cubic feet a day, according to figures of the National OilCorporation (NOC).

The (alternative) BP Statistical Energy Survey (2008) places Libya’s proven oil reserves at 41.464 billion barrels at the end of 2007 which represents 3.34 % of the world’s proven reserves. (Mbendi Oil and Gas in Libya – Overview).

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Oil is the “Trophy” of US-NATO led Wars

An invasion of Libya would serve the same corporate interests as the 2003 invasion and occupation of Iraq. The underlying objective is to take possession of Libya’s oil reserves, destabilize the National Oil Corporation (NOC) and eventually privatize the country’s oilindustry, namely transfer the control and ownership of Libya’s oil wealth into foreign hands.

The National Oil Corporation (NOC) is ranked 25 among the world’s Top 100 Oil Companies. (The Energy Intelligence ranks NOC 25 among the world’s Top 100 companies. – Libyaonline.com)

The planned invasion of Libya, which is already underway is part of the broader “Battle forOil”.  Close to 80 percent of Libya’s oil reserves are located in the Sirte Gulf basin of EasternLibya. (See map below)

Libya is a Prize Economy. “War is good for business”. Oil is the trophy of US-NATO led wars.

Wall Street, the Anglo-American oil giants, the US-EU weapons producers would be the unspoken beneficiaries of a US-NATO led military campaign directed against Libya.

Libyan oil is a bonanza for the Anglo-American oil giants. While the market value of crude oilis currently well in excess of 100 dollars a barrel, the cost of Libyan oil is extremely low, as low as $1.00 a barrel (according to one estimate). As one oil market expert commented somewhat cryptically:

“At $110 on the world market, the simple math gives Libya a $109 profit margin.” (Libya Oil, Libya Oil One Country’s $109 Profit on $110 Oil, EnergyandCapital.com March 12, 2008)

Foreign Oil Interests in Libya

Foreign oil companies operating prior to the insurrection in Libya include France’s Total, Italy’s ENI, The China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), British Petroleum, the Spanish Oilconsortium REPSOL, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Occidental Petroleum, Hess, Conoco Phillips.

Of significance, China plays a central role in the Libyan oil industry. The China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) had until its repatriation a Chinese workforce in Libya of 30,000. British Petroleum (BP) in contrast had a British workforce of 40 which ahs been repatriated.

Eleven percent (11%) of Libyan oil exports are channelled to China. While there are no figures on the size and importance of CNPC’s production and exploration activities, there are indications that they are sizeable.

More generally, China’s presence in North Africa is considered by Washington to constitute an intrusion. From a geopolitical standpoint, China is an encroachment. The military campaign directed against Libya is intent upon excluding China from North Africa.

Also of importance is the role of Italy. ENI, the Italian oil consortium puts out 244,000 barrels of gas and oil, which represents almost 25 percent of Libya’s total exports. ( Sky News: Foreign Oil firms halt Libyan operations, February 23, 2011).

Among US companies in Libya, Chevron and Occidental Petroleum (Oxy) decided barely 6 months ago (October 2010) not to renew their oil and gas exploration licenses in Libya. Did they have advanced knowledge of the insurrection? (Why are Chevron and Oxy leaving Libya?: Voice of Russia, October 6, 2010). In contrast, in November 2010, Germany oil oil company, R.W. DIA E signed a far-reaching agreement with Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) involving exploration and production sharing. AfricaNews – Libya: German Oil firm signs prospecting deal – The AfricaNews,

The financial stakes as well  as “the spoils of war” are extremely high. The military operation is intent upon dismantling Libya’s financial institutions as well as confiscating billions of dollars of Libyan financial assets deposited in Western banks.

It should be emphasised that Libya’s military capabilities, including its air defense system are weak.

Libya Oil Concessions

 

Redrawing of the Map of Africa

Libya has the largest oil reserves in Africa. The objective of US-NATO interference is strategic: it consists in outright theft, in stealing the nation’s oil wealth under the disguise of a humanitarian intervention.

This military operation is intent upon establishing US hegemony in North Africa, a region historically dominated by France and to lesser extent by Italy and Spain.

With regard to Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria, Washington’s design is to weaken the political links of these countries to France and push for the installation of new political regimes which have a close rapport with the US. This weakening of France as part of a US imperial design is part of a historical process which goes back to the wars in Indochina.

US-NATO intervention leading to the eventual formation of a US puppet regime is also intent upon excluding China from the region and edging out China’s National Petroleum Corp (CNPC). The Anglo-American oil giants including British Petroleum which signed an exploration contract in 2007 with the Ghadaffi government are among the potential “beneficiaries” of  the proposed US-NATO military operation.

More generally, what is at stake is the redrawing of the map of Africa, a process of neo-colonial redivision, the scrapping of the demarcations of the 1884 Berlin Conference, the conquest of Africa by the United States in alliance with Britain, in a US-NATO led operation.

The colonial redivision of Africa. 1913

Libya: Strategic Saharan Gateway to Central Africa

Libya has borders with several countries which are in the French sphere of influence including Algeria, Tunisia, Niger and Chad.

Chad is potentially an oil rich economy. ExxonMobil and Chevron have interests in Southern Chad including a pipeline project. Southern Chad is a gateway into the Darfur region of Sudan. China has oil interests in both Chad and Sudan. The China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) signed a farreaching agreement with the Chad government in 2007.

Niger is strategic to the United States in view of its extensive reserves of uranium. At present,France dominates the uranium industry in Niger through the French nuclear conglomerate Areva, formerly known as Cogema. China also has a stake in Niger’s uranium industry.

More generally, the Southern border of Libya is strategic for the United States in its quest to extend its sphere of influence in Francophone Africa, a vast territory extending from North Africa to Central and Western Africa. Historically this region was part of France and Belgium’s colonial empire, the borders of which were established  at the Berlin Conference of 1884.

Source www.hobotraveler.com

The US played a passive role in the 1884 Berlin Conference. This new 21st Century redivision of the African continent, predicated on the control over oil, natural gas and strategic minerals (cobalt, uranium, chromium, manganese, platinum and uranium) largely supports dominant Anglo-American corporate interests.

US interference in North Africa redefines the geopolitics of an entire region. It underminesChina and overshadows the influence of the European Union.

This new redivision of Africa not only weakens the role of the former colonial powers (including France and Italy) in North Africa. it  is also part of a broader process of displacing and weakening France (and Belgium) over a large part of the African continent.

US puppet regimes have been installed in several African countries which historically were in the sphere of influence of France (and Belgium), including The Republic of the Congo and Rwanda.  Several countries in West Africa within the sphere of France (including Côte d’Ivoire) are slated to become US proxy states.

The European Union is heavily dependent on the flow of Libyan oil. 85 percent of its oil is sold to European countries. In the case of a war with Libya, the supply of petroleum to Western Europe could be disrupted, largely affecting Italy, France and Germany, which are heavily dependent on Libyan oil. The implications of these disruptions are far-reaching. They also have direct bearing on the relationship between the US and the European Union.

Concluding Remarks

The mainstream media through massive disinformation is complicit in justifying a military agenda which, if carried out, would have devastating consequences not only for the Libyan people: the social and economic impacts would be felt Worldwide.

There are at present three distinct war theaters in the broader Middle East Central Asian region: Palestine, Afghanistan, Iraq. In the case of an attack on Libya, a  fourth war theater would be opened up in North Africa, with the risk of military escalation.

Public opinion must take cognizance of the hidden agenda behind this alleged humanitarian undertaking, heralded by the heads of state and heads of government of NATO countries as a “Just War”. The Just War theory in both its classical and contemporary versions upholds waras a “humanitarian operation”. It calls for military intervention on ethical and moral grounds against “rogue states” and “Islamic terrorists”. The Just war theory demonizes the Ghadaffi regime while providing

The heads of state and heads of government of NATO countries are the architects of war and destruction in Iraq and Afghanistan. In an utterly twisted logic, they are heralded as the voices of reason, as the representatives of the “international community”.

Realities are turned upside down. A humanitarian intervention is launched by war criminals in high office, who are the guardians of the Just War theory.

Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo,… Civilian casualties in Pakistan resulting from US drone attacks on town and villages, ordered by president Obama are not front page news, nor are the 2 million civilian deaths in Iraq. There is no such thing as a “Just War”.

The history of US imperialism should be understood. The 2000 Report of the Project of the New American Century entitled “Rebuilding Americas’ Defenses” calls for the implementation of a long war, a war of conquest. One of the main components of this military agenda is: to“Fight and decisively win in multiple, simultaneous theater wars”.

Operation Libya is part of that process. It is another theater in the Pentagon’s logic of “simultaneous theater wars”.

The PNAC document faithfully reflects the evolution of US military doctrine since 2001. The US plans to be involved simultaneously in several war theaters in different regions of the World.

While protecting America, namely “National Security” of the United States of America is upheld as an objective, the PNAC report does spell out why these multiple theater wars are required. The humanitarian justification is not mentioned.

What is the purpose of America’s military roadmap?

Libya is targeted because it is one among several remaining countries outside America’s sphere of influence, which fail to conform to US demands. Libya is a country which has been selected as part of a military “road map” which consists of “multiple simultaneous theater wars”.  In the words of former NATO Commander Chief General Wesley Clark:

“in the Pentagon in November 2001, one of the senior military staff officers had time for a chat. Yes, we were still on track for going against Iraq, he said. But there was more. This was being discussed as part of a five-year campaign plan, he said, and there were a total of seven countries, beginning with Iraq, then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Iran, Somalia and Sudan…. (Wesley Clark, Winning Modern Wars, p. 130).

 

Darkpolitricks.com

Libya’s economy – all about money and oil in Libya – The best oil around the world

Libya’s economy is heavily reliant on oil exports.
Libya relies on oil and natural gas to satisfy energy consumption demand. Economic growth in Libya is dependent on the hydrocarbon industry. According to the World Bank, the country’s hydrocarbon exports account for over 95 percent of total merchandize exports and revenues from the oil and natural gas sectors amount to over half of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). Since the United Nations and the United States lifted sanctions over Libya in 2003 and 2004, respectively, oil majors have stepped up exploration efforts for oil and natural gas in the country. Likewise, companies have tried using enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques to increase production at maturing fields. Over the next six years, Libya would like to see oil production capacity increase by 40 percent from 1.8 million barrels per day (bbl/d) to 3 million bbl/d by 2013.

Oil

Libya has the largest proven oil reserves in Africa. The country hopes to increase oil production capacity through increasing exploration and EOR projects.
Libya, a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), holds the largest proven oil reserves in Africa, followed by Nigeria and Algeria (see graph below). According to Oil and Gas Journal (OGJ), Libya had total proven oil reserves of 41.5 billion barrels as of January 2007, up from 39.1 billion barrels in 2006. About 80 percent of Libya’s proven oil reserves are located in the Sirte basin, which is responsible for 90 percent of the country’s oil output. Libya remains "highly unexplored" according to reports by Wood Mackenzie, and only around 25 percent of Libya is covered by exploration agreements with oil companies. The under-exploration of Libya reflects the impact of former sanctions and also stringent fiscal terms imposed by Libya on foreign oil companies.

Production

According to the International Crude Oil Market Handbook, Libya’s National Oil Company (NOC) would like to raise oil production from 1.80 million bbl/d in 2006 to 2 million bbl/d by 2008 and to 3 million bbl/d by 2010-2013. In large part, NOC’s production goals depend on its ability to finance its share of development costs. Future foreign investment into the oil sector is likely, especially with the improved investment climate that stems from the United Nations and United States lifting sanctions. Previously, sanctions had caused delays in a number of field development and EOR projects and had deterred foreign capital investment. Overall, Libya is considered a highly attractive oil province due to its low cost of oil recovery (as low as $1 per barrel at some fields), the high quality of its oil, and its proximity to European markets.

Exports

With domestic consumption of 284,000 bbl/d in 2006, Libya had estimated net exports (including all liquids) of 1.525 million bbl/d. According to 2006 official trade data as reported to the Global Trade Atlas, the vast majority of Libyan oil exports are sold to European countries like Italy (495,000 bbl/d), Germany (253,000 bbl/d), Spain (113,000) bbl/d and France (87,000 bbl/d). With the lifting of sanctions against Libya in 2004, the United States has increased its imports of Libyan oil. The United States imported an average of 85,500 bbl/d of total Libyan oil exports in 2006, up from 56,000 bbl/d of oil imports in 2005.

Libyan oil is generally light (high API gravity) and sweet (low sulfur content), but can also be thick and waxy. The country's nine export grades have API gravities that range from 26o – 44o. While the lighter, sweeter grades are generally sold to Europe, the heavier crude oils are often exported to Asian markets. Most Libyan oil is sold on a term basis, including to the country's Oilinvest marketing network in Europe; to companies like Agip, OMV, Repsol YPF, Tupras, CEPSA, and Total; and small volumes to Asian and South African companies.

Field Development and Exploration

With state-operated oil fields undergoing a 7-8 percent natural decline rate, Libya's challenge is maintaining production at mature fields, while finding new oil and developing new discoveries. In November 2005, Repsol YPF (operator) announced that it had discovered a significant new oil deposit of light, sweet crude that extends over two licenses in the Murzuq Basin. Industry experts believe the discovery to be one of the biggest made in Libya for several years. The discovery is partly located in license NC-186, which currently produces around 60,000 bbl/d. Production on the license is expected to increase over the next 4-year period (2007-2011) by 100,000 – 150,000 bbl/d as oil from the discovery comes online. Repsol YPF is joined by a consortium of partners that includes OMV, Total and Norsk Hydro.

Also located in Murzuq Basin is Eni’s Elephant field. In October 1997, an international consortium led by British company Lasmo, along with Eni and a group of five South Korean companies, announced that it had discovered large recoverable crude reserves (around 700 million barrels) at the NC-174 Block, 465 miles south of Tripoli. Lasmo, which was purchased by Eni in 2001, estimated that production from the field would cost around $1 per barrel. Elephant began production in February 2004 at around 10,000 bbl/d. In 2006, Eni indicated that Elephant was producing at around 125,000 bbl/d, and the company was hoping to see the field reach full capacity of 150,000 bbl/d by 2008.

Waha Oil Company’s (WOC) Waha fields currently produce around 350,000 bbl/d, down from around 1 million bbl/d in 1969 and 400,000 bbl/d in 1986. However, WOC expects to increase Waha output by around 200,000 bbl/d over the next couple of years. In 2005, ConocoPhillips and co-venturers reached an agreement with NOC to both return to its operations in Libya and to extend the Waha concession by 25 years. ConocoPhillips operates the Waha fields with a 16.33 percent share in the project. NOC has the largest share of the Waha concession 59.17 percent, and additional partners include Marathon (16.33 percent), and Amerada Hess (8.17 percent).

Refining and Downstream

Libya’s refining sector needs upgrading after years of sanctions.
According to OGJ, Libya has five domestic refineries, with a combined capacity of 378,000 bbl/d. Libya's refineries include: 1) the Ras Lanuf export refinery, completed in 1984 and located on the Gulf of Sirte, with a crude oil refining capacity of 220,000 bbl/d; 2) the Az Zawiya refinery, completed in 1974 and located in northwestern Libya, with crude processing capacity of 120,000 bbl/d; 3) the Tobruk refinery, with crude capacity of 20,000 bbl/d; 4) Brega, the oldest refinery in Libya, located near Tobruk with crude capacity of 10,000 bbl/d; and 5) Sarir, a topping facility with 8,000 bbl/d of capacity.

ibya's refining sector reportedly was impacted by UN sanctions, specifically UN Resolution 883 of November 11, 1993, which banned Libya from importing refinery equipment. Libya is seeking a comprehensive upgrade to its entire refining system, with a particular aim of increasing output of gasoline and other light products (i.e. jet fuel). As of early June 2007, NOC was evaluating investment proposals for upgrading the Ras Lanuf refinery. Total cost of the upgrade is estimated at $2 billion. NOC is also expected to re-tender an engineering, procurement and construction contract for upgrading the Az Zawiya refinery. In addition to refinery upgrades, Tamoil Africa and Occidental Petroleum Corporation reportedly have plans to build new refineries near Melitah.

Overseas Investment

In addition to its domestic refineries, Libya has operations in Europe through its overseas oil retail arm, Tamoil. Through Tamoil, Libya is a direct producer and distributor of refined products in Italy, Germany, Switzerland, and Egypt. Tamoil Italia, based in Milan, controls about 7.5 percent of Italy's retail market for oil products and lubricants, which are distributed through 3,000 Tamoil service stations. Libya's ability to increase the supply of oil products to European markets has been constrained by the fact that Libya's refineries are in need of upgrading, specifically in order to meet stricter EU environmental standards in place since 1996. In June 2007, United States-based Colony Capital reached a agreement to take over 65 percent of Tamoil, while the Libyan government will retain 35 percent. Libya will continue to control Tamoil Africa, which operates retail stations in Egypt and Burkina Faso among other African nations.

Sector Organization

Libya's oil industry is run by the state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC), along with smaller subsidiary companies, which combined account for around half of the country's oil output. Of NOC's subsidiaries, the largest oil producer is the Waha Oil Company (WOC), followed by the Arabian Gulf Oil Company (Agoco), Zueitina Oil Company (ZOC), and Sirte Oil Company (SOC). In addition to NOC’s subsidiaries, several international oil companies are engaged in exploration and production in Libya including Repsol YPF (Spain), Eni (Italy), OMV (Austria), and Total (France).

United States-based oil companies, after the lifting of sanctions in 2004, were allowed back into Libya. In September 2003 the UN Security Council officially lifted its sanctions over Libya. On February 26, 2004, following a declaration by Libya that it would abandon its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs and comply with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NNPT), the United States rescinded a ban on travel to Libya and authorized U.S. oil companies with pre-sanctions holdings in Libya to negotiate on their return to the country if and when the United States lifted economic sanctions. On April 23, 2004, the United States eased its economic sanctions against Libya, and the White House issued a press release stating that: “U.S. companies will be able to buy or invest in Libyan oil and products. U.S. commercial banks and other financial service providers will be able to participate in and support these transactions." On the same day, Libya’s NOC announced its first shipment of oil to the United States in over 20 years. On June 28, 2004, the United States and Libya formally resumed diplomatic relations, severed since May 1981. Finally, on September 20, 2004, President Bush signed Executive Order 12543, lifting most remaining U.S. sanctions against Libya and paving the way for U.S. oil companies to try to secure contracts or revive previous contracts for tapping Libya’s oil reserves. The Order also revoked any restrictions on importation of oil products refined in Libya, and unblocked certain assets.

Licensing Rounds

On January 30, 2005, Libya held its first round of oil and natural gas exploration leases since the United States ended sanctions against the country. In October 2005, Libya held a second bidding round under EPSA IV, with 51 companies taking part and nearly $500 million worth of new investment flowing into the country as a result. In December 2006, Libya held its third bidding round; however, production-sharing agreements (PSAs) awarded in the round were still being signed by NOC as of April 2007. Industry experts noted that the third round attracted smaller players, including ones from Russia, as opposed to larger international oil companies (IOCs), which participated in the previous two rounds. In July 2007, Libya plans to announce its fourth round, which is likely to focus on natural gas assets.

Winners of Libyan exploration acreage are determined largely based on how high a share of production a company is willing to offer NOC. Whichever companies offer NOC the greatest share of profits is likely to win. In addition, oilfield developers initially bear 100 percent of costs (exploration, appraisal, training) for a minimum of 5 years, while NOC retains exclusive ownership. Also included in Libyan licensing rounds is open competitive bidding and transparency, joint development and marketing of non-associated natural gas discoveries, standardized terms for exploration and production, and non-recoverable bonuses.

Natural Gas

Libyan natural gas production and exports are increasing, with the opening of the “Greenstream” pipeline to Europe in late 2004.
Expansion of natural gas production remains a high priority for Libya for two main reasons. Libya aims to use natural gas instead of oil domestically for power generation, freeing up more oil for export. Second, Libya has vast natural gas reserves and is looking to increase its natural gas exports, particularly to Europe. Libya's proven natural gas reserves as of January 1, 2007 were estimated at 52.7 trillion cubic feet (Tcf ) by OGJ. Some Libyan experts believe, with more exploration, reserves may reach possibly 70-100 Tcf. Major producing fields include Attahadi, Defa-Waha, Hatiba, Zelten, Sahl, and Assumud. To expand its natural gas production, marketing, and distribution, Libya is looking to foreign participation and investment.

Production
Libya’s natural gas production has grown substantially in the last few years. According to EIA, Libya produced 399 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in 2005, while consuming 206 Bcf. In 2006, IHS Energy reported Libya produced 985 Bcf of natural gas, more than two times the amount produced in 2005. Of the 985 Bcf, 474 Bcf was export to Italy and Spain, 385 Bcf was used in oilfield recovery projects, and the remaining 146 Bcf was used in the generation of electricity in Libya.

Exports

Libyan natural gas exports to Europe are increasing rapidly, with the Western Libyan Gas Project (WLGP) and the $6.6 billion, 32-inch, 370-mile "Greenstream" underwater natural gas pipeline, which came online in October 2004. Previously, the only customer for Libyan natural gas was Spain's Enagas. However, the WLGP -- a 50/50 joint venture between Eni and NOC -- has now expanded these exports to Italy and beyond. Currently, 280 Bcf per year of natural gas is being exported from a processing facility at Melitah, on the Libyan coast, via Greenstream to southeastern Sicily. From Sicily, the natural gas flows to the Italian mainland, and then onwards to the rest of Europe. Greenstream is 75 percent owned by Eni, with first flows coming from the Wafa onshore field near the Algerian border and the Bahr es Salam offshore field near Tripoli. Throughput on the Greenstream line reportedly can be boosted to 385 Bcf per year.

Italy's Edison Gas has committed, under a "take-or-pay" contract, to taking around half (140 Bcf per year) of this natural gas, and to use it mainly for power generation in Italy. Besides Edison, Italy's Energia Gas and Gaz de France have each committed to taking around 70 Bcf of Libyan natural gas. Another 70 Bcf per year of natural gas is to be produced from WLGP for the domestic Libyan market (feedstock or power generation) or possibly for export to Tunisia.

Pipeline projects

In 1997, Tunisia and Libya agreed to set up a joint venture in order to build a natural gas pipeline from the Melitah area in Libya to the southern Tunisian city and industrial zone of Gabes. As of November 2006, the joint venture was in the preparation phase for issuing a tender for an engineering, procurement and construction contract to build the pipeline. Construction on the pipeline is estimated to take 18 months, and the pipeline could come online as early as 2010 if all goes according to plan. Previously, Tunisia and Libya signed an agreement for around 70 Bcf of natural gas per year to be delivered from Libyan gas fields to Tunisia.

Eni also has promoted linking the reserves of both Egypt and Libya to Italy by pipeline. An agreement in principle to link Egypt and Libya's natural gas grids was reached in June 1997, following a visit to Libya by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. In 2001, a joint venture agreement was reached between NOC and Egypt's EGPC for construction of a pipeline to carry Egyptian natural gas to Libya (for power generation, water desalination, and possible export) and for another to carry Libyan oil to Alexandria, Egypt for refining and consumption there). The joint venture company is called "Arab Company for Oil and Gas Pipelines," or ACOG.

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

In 1971, Libya became the second country in the world (after Algeria in 1964) to export liquefied natural gas (LNG). Since then, Libya's LNG exports have remained low, largely due to technical limitations which do not allow Libya to extract liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the natural gas. Libya's LNG plant, at Marsa El Brega, was built in the late 1960s by Esso and has a nominal capacity of about 125 Bcf per year. However, US sanctions prevented Libya from obtaining needed equipment to separate out LPG from the natural gas, thereby limiting the plant's output to about 15 percent of nameplate capacity, all of which is exported to Spain (Enagas).

Now that sanctions have been lifted companies are looking to invest in Libyan LNG projects. In May 2005, Shell agreed to a final deal with NOC to develop Libyan oil and gas resources, including LNG export facilities. The deal came after lengthy negotiations on the terms of a March 2004 framework agreement. Reportedly, Shell is aiming to upgrade and expand Marsa El Brega and possibly build a new LNG export facility as well at a cost of $105-$450 million. In addition to Shell, other companies like Repsol YPF are also interested in developing Libya's LNG export potential.

Electricity

Libya needs to invest billions of dollars in new generating capacity to meet increasing demand.
As of January 2004, Libya had electric power production capacity of about 4.7 gigawatts (GW). In 2004, Libya generated 19.4 billion kilowatthours (Bkwh) of electricity, while consuming 18.1 Bkwh. Most of Libya's existing power stations are being converted from oil to natural gas, and new power plants are being built to run on natural gas, primarily to maximize the volume of oil available for export purposes. Libya is also looking at potential wind and solar projects, particularly in remote regions where it is impractical to extend the power grid.

Libya's electric power demand has grown rapidly over the past few decades, with current plans calling for a doubling in power generating capacity by 2010. Libya's state-owned General Electricity Company (GECOL) is building several new power plants. One factor leading to rapid power demand growth is the fact that electricity is heavily subsidized, at perhaps one-third the market cost of 12 cents per kilowatthour. Currently, Libya's power grid consists of around 8,000 miles of 220-kV lines and 13,000 miles of 66-kV and 30kV lines. Libya also is looking at increased links with the Tunisian and Egyptian power grids.

Profile

Country Overview

Location/Size
North Africa/1,775,500 sq km (685,524 sq mi), slightly larger than Alaska

Independence
December 24, 1951 (from Italy)

Population (7/2006E)
6 million

Languages
Arabic; Italian and English widely understood in major cities

Religions
Sunni Muslim (97%)

Economic Overview

Secretary of the General People's Committee for Economy and Trade
Ali Abdul Aziz al-Isawi

Currency/Exchange Rate (6/8/2007)
1 Libyan Dinar (LYD) = $0.7803 USD

Inflation Rate (2006E)
3.5%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP, 2006E)
$50.2 billion

Real GDP Growth Rate (2006E)
5.8%

Unemployment Rate (2004E)
30%

External Debt (2006E)
$4.5 billion

Merchandise Exports (2006E)
$38.5 billion

Exports - Commodities
Petroleum, chemical and petrochemical products, fruits and nuts, carpets

Exports - Partners (2005)
Italy 38%, Germany 15%, Spain 9.3%, Turkey 6.2%, France 6.2%, United States 5.2%

Merchandise Imports (2006E)
$10.4 billion

Imports - Commodities
Industrial raw materials and intermediate goods, capital goods, foodstuffs and other consumer goods, technical services, military supplies

Imports - Partners (2005)
Italy 21.2%, Germany 10.2, Tunisia 5.9%, Turkey 4.8%, United Kingdom 4.8%, France 4.7%, South Korea 4.6%, China 4.5%

Current Account Balance (2006E)
$24.4 billion

Energy Overview

Secretary of the General People's Committee for Electricity, Water and Gas
Umran Ibrahim Abu-Kra’aa

Proven Oil Reserves (January 1, 2007E)
41.5 billion barrels

Oil Production (2006E)
1.80 million barrels per day, of which 95% was crude oil.

Oil Consumption (2006E)
284 thousand barrels per day

Net Oil Exports (2006E)
1,525 thousand barrels per day

Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (2006E)
378 thousand barrels per day

Proven Natural Gas Reserves (January 1, 2007E)
52.7 trillion cubic feet

Natural Gas Production (2005E)
399 billion cubic feet

Natural Gas Consumption (2005E)
206 billion cubic feet

Recoverable Coal Reserves (2004E)
None

Coal Production (2004E)
None

Coal Consumption (2004E)
None

Electricity Installed Capacity (2004E)
4.7 gigawatts (all oil and natural gas)

Electricity Production (2004E)
19.4 billion kilowatt hours

Electricity Consumption (2004E)
18.1 billion kilowatt hours

Total Energy Consumption (2004E)
0.75 quadrillion Btus*, of which Oil (71%), Natural Gas (29%)

Total Per Capita Energy Consumption (2004E)
133 million Btus

Energy Intensity (2004E)
24,158 Btu per $2000-PPP**

Environmental Overview

Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions (2004E)
50.2 million metric tons, of which Oil (74%), Natural Gas (26%)

Per-Capita, Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions (2004E)
8.9 metric tons

Carbon Dioxide Intensity (2004E)
1.6 Metric tons per thousand $2000-PPP**

Environmental Issues
Desertification; very limited natural fresh water resources; the Great Manmade River Project, the largest water development scheme in the world, is being built to bring water from large aquifers under the Sahara to coastal cities

Major Environmental Agreements
party to: Biodiversity, Climate Change, Desertification, Endangered Species, Hazardous Wastes, Marine Dumping, Ozone Layer Protection signed, but not ratified: Environmental Modification, Law of the Sea

Oil and Gas Industry

Organization
The Ministry of Energy was abolished in 2000. At that time, the National Oil Company was given full control over the country’s oil sector. The Energy Ministry was re-established in 2004. Oil rights in Libya are awarded under Exploration and Production Sharing Agreements (EPSAs) based on the 1955 Hydrocarbon Law. Downstream investment is covered by the 1997 Foreign Investment Law.

Major Oil Terminals
Es Sider, Marsa el-Brega, Tobruk, Ras Lanuf, Zawiya, Zuetina

Foreign Company Involvement
Amerada Hess, Canadian Occidental, ChevronTexaco, CNPC, Eni, Husky Oil, Indian Oil Corp., Liwa (UAE), Medco Energy (Indonesia), Naftogaz Ukrainy, Nimr Petroleum (Saudi Arabia), Norsk Hydro, Occidental, OMV, ONGC, Pedco (South Korea), Petrobras (Brazil), PetroCanada, Petronas (Malaysia), Red Sea Oil Corp. (Canada), Repsol, Shell, Total, Verenex (Canada), Wintershall (Germany), Woodside (Australia)

Major Oil and Gas Fields
Al Jurf , Amal, Beda, Bouri, Bu Attifel, Defa-Waha, El Sharara, Elephant, Ghani, Gialo, Hofra, Intisar, Kabir, Mabruk, Murzuq, Nafoora, Nasser, NC-41, NC-186 fields, Omar, Sarah, Sarir, Wafa, Zella, Zenad, Zueitina

Major Pipelines
Amal-Ras Lanuf; Defa-Nasser; Hammada el Hamra-Az Zawiya; Intisar-Zueitina; Intisar -Hatiba; Messla-Ras Lanuf; Nasser-Hatiba; Nasser (Zelten)-Marsa el Brega; Sarir-Marsa el Hariga; Waha-Es Sider

Major Refineries (capacity, bbl/d)
Ras Lanuf (220,000 bbl/d), Az-Zawiya (120,000 bbl/d), Tobruk (20,000 bbl/d), Brega (10,000 bbl/d), Sarir (10,000 bbl/d)

* The total energy consumption statistic includes petroleum, dry natural gas, coal, net hydro, nuclear, geothermal, solar, wind, wood and waste electric power. The renewable energy consumption statistic is based on International Energy Agency (IEA) data and includes hydropower, solar, wind, tide, geothermal, solid biomass and animal products, biomass gas and liquids, industrial and municipal wastes. Sectoral shares of energy consumption and carbon emissions are also based on IEA data.
**GDP figures from OECD estimates based on purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates.

http://www.eia.doe.gov

Libya intervention: What's the endgame? Many in Washington remain uneasy

Allied forces have imposed a no-fly zone over Libya, Pentagon officials say. But many in Washington remain uneasy about an engagement whose objectives seem less than clear.

Combat jets from the US, France, and Britain today rule the skies over Libya. The forces of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi – battered by coalition air power – have retreated. Rebel fighters are regrouping and moving to retake ground recently lost.

What happens now?

Days after US military forces struck in a third recent conflict overseas, many in Washington remain uneasy about a Libya engagement whose objectives seem less than clear and that began as Mr. Qaddafi appeared on the verge of regaining his iron grip on the country.

IN PICTURES: Libya no-fly zone

US officials insist that the purpose of the Libya intervention is protection of civilians, per United Nations Security Council resolution. It is a humanitarian operation, they say, not a move to pick sides in Libya’s developing civil war.

That’s a point of view backed by surrounding Arab nations, who supported the initial strikes.

But some allies – notably France – have talked tougher and may push for an endgame that includes military cooperation with the rebels and Qaddafi’s ouster. For the Obama administration, managing diplomatic conflicts over Libya strategy may prove more difficult than managing warplanes in Libyan airspace.

“If you are not exquisitely clear on what you are trying to accomplish, powerful forces within that alliance will tend to really complicate matters pretty quickly,” says William Martel, associate professor of international security studies at the Fletcher School of Tufts University in Medford, Mass.

On Monday, Pentagon officials said that the ad hoc coalition had effectively imposed a no-fly zone over Libya in the wake of weekend airstrikes. There were no indications, they said, that Libyan forces had attempted to fly any aircraft in recent hours.

“We judge these strikes to have been very effective in significantly degrading the regime’s air defense capability. We believe his forces are under significant stress and suffering from both isolation and a good deal of confusion,” said Navy Vice Adm. William Gortney, staff director for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, at a Pentagon news conference.

Gortney and other US officials said that Qaddafi himself is not a target of the aircraft enforcing the no-fly zone, despite a large explosion that hit his personal compound Sunday in the closing hours of the initial round of bombing.

The US clearly believes that the mandate of the UN Security Council resolution does not extend to direct attempts at regime change. But in the past, President Obama has called directly on Qaddafi to go. What happens if Qaddafi survives the next few weeks and the Libyan conflict hardens into a prolonged civil war? Will the US participate in a no-fly zone that stretches for years, as it did over Iraq in the wake of the 1990-91 Gulf War?

Would the US accept a cease-fire agreement that leaves Qaddafi in place? Would it look weak of it did?

“The credibility of the US policy hangs on the departure of Qaddafi, and right now that looks like far from a foregone conclusion,” says Professor Martel.

What happens if France pushes for an escalation in the airstrikes? After all, France has already recognized the opposition leadership, based in Benghazi, as the true Libyan government.

Yet Mr. Obama has ruled out use of US ground troops and spoken of an operation that lasts days, not weeks. And Arab League secretary-general Amre Moussa has publicly deplored the scope and intensity of military actions that have already taken place.

“These differing objectives amongst the newly formed coalition do not augur well for a well-coordinated alliance, especially one that the United States explicitly does not want to lead,” writes Robert Danin, Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies, in anonline analysis.

All this uncertainty has led to criticism of the operation from senior Republican lawmakers in Washington.

In a statement, House Speaker John Boehner said that the Obama administration “has a responsibility to define for the American people, the Congress, and our troops what the mission in Libya is” and how it will be accomplished.

On Sunday, former presidential candidate Sen. John McCain (R) of Arizona said that he hoped the no-fly zone had not come too late to prevent Qaddafi from regaining his power.

“Obviously, if we had taken this step a couple weeks ago, a no-fly zone would probably have been enough. Now, a no-fly zone is not enough. There needs to be other efforts made,” said Senator McCain on CNN’s “State of the Union.”

Peter Grier