Monday, September 3, 2012

Election 2012: Angola's Ruling MPLA Party Wins 74 Percent of Vote

Angola, eleições 2012

President Jose Eduardo dos Santos' ruling party has won 73 percent of the national vote assuring his government, in power for 32 years, another five years in power.

With 85 percent of the votes counted from Friday's poll, the state election commission said Sunday that the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola, or MPLA, has gained a large majority. The MPLA will control Angola's 220 seat legislature, but the party's margin of victory is down from the 82 percent that it won in 2008.

The largest opposition party, UNITA, won 18 percent of the vote, nearly twice its share from 2008. And newcomer party, CASA-CE, gained five percent. Both opposition parties criticized the elections for not being free and fair.

The elections were largely peaceful and relatively well-organized in this former Portuguese colony of 21 million that is Africa's second largest oil producer, according to a diplomatic observer.

"We didn't witness one single case of coercion of intimidation. People voted freely throughout the country," Leonardo Simao, chief of the observing mission of the Community of Portuguese Language Countries, or CPLP, told The Associated Press.

He said the turnout of 57 percent of the 9 million eligible voters was good, particularly among women and youths, and that the voting process went smoothly.

"If there are people who have witnessed wrongdoings or violations of the law, they should use legal procedures to bring forward their grievances," Simao said.

The African Union observers declared the election to be "free, just, transparent and credible," said Pedro Pires, chief of the mission, although he noted that opposition parties did not have equal access to the state media and Angolans living abroad could not vote.

Others, however, were more critical of the election process.

"This was all prepared during the electoral process," said Elias Isaac of the Open Society Initiative of Southern Africa. "The only surprise for me is that the ruling party did not get 90 percent." He said many abstained from voting, and that "the whole system was built to exclude and prevent people from heading to the polls."

On a positive note, Isaac said that "CASA-CE has done very well" for such a new party "especially given the context of a virtual one party system. But real change will only come when the electoral process is managed by independent, critical people," Isaac said.

Friday's elections were Angola's second since the end of the 27-year civil war, which lasted from 1975 to 2002, and the third since independence. On September 20 President Jose Eduardo dos Santos and his MPLA party will mark 33 years in power.

Eleições2012: Analista político considera vitória do MPLA como reflexo da vontade da maioria

MPLA-ANGOLA

Benguela - O analista político angolano, Herlander Napoleão, considerou este domingo que a liderança do MPLA na contagem dos votos, com 74,14 porcento, a uma larga distância da UNITA, o segundo partido mais votado, com 17,80, se deve a vontade expressa pela maioria nas eleições gerais de 31 de Agosto.

Herlander Napoleão comentava à Angop em relação à divulgação dos resultados oficiais provisórios pela Comissão Nacional Eleitoral (CNE), em que o MPLA segue à frente com 3.131.615 votos, correspondendo a 74, 14 %, seguindo-se em segundo a UNITA, com 751.862 (17,80 %) e, em terceiro, surge a CASA-CE, com 197.444 (4, 67 %).

Segundo o analista político, em face desses resultados "ficou espelhada a vontade da maioria dos eleitores em democracia e é assim que as coisas funcionam, havendo vencidos e vencedores".

Reconheceu que independentemente desse facto, Angola é que sai a ganhar dessas eleições, tendo em conta a maturidade da população votante, o civismo a tolerância na afluência às urnas para o exercício do direito de cidadania.

"O que implica dizer que os vencidos de hoje podem ser os vencedores de amanhã", asseverou o também politólogo, esperando que estas eleições ajudem a que a democracia em Angola se possa consolidar a um ritmo considerável.

Argumentou que como vencedor, o partido do Presidente José Eduardo dos Santos tem agora responsabilidades acrescidas no que concerne a realização dos objetivos traçados no programa de governação para o quinquénio 2012-2017, priorizando a resolução dos problemas gritantes que o país enfrenta.

De acordo com a Constituição vigente, a presidência da República e a vice--presidência são automaticamente atribuídas ao número um e dois da lista do partido vencedor, nesse caso, José Eduardo dos Santos e Manuel Vicente, respectivamente, para um mandato de 5 anos.

Via | Angop
https://www.facebook.com/MPLA2017

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Eleições2012: Íntegra do discurso do Presidente do MPLA (JES) no Huambo

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Luanda - Discurso pronunciado por sua Excelência José Eduardo dos Santos, Presidente do MPLA, num comício, na cidade do Huambo, no âmbito da campanha do seu partido, para as Eleições Gerais de 2012.


CAROS AMIGOS,
ESTIMADOS COMPATRIOTAS,


Muito obrigado pela vossa presença e pelas vossas manifestações de apoio, solidariedade e amizade.


Como sabem, reabilitar as nossas vias de comunicação foi, desde sempre, um ponto de honra para o nosso Governo. Isto porque um país só se pode desenvolver quando garante a ampla circulação de pessoas e bens por todo o seu território.


Já vencemos grande parte deste desafio e agora podemos dar um novo impulso ao desenvolvimento económico e social de todas as nossas dezoito províncias. E é exactamente o que nos propomos fazer para Angola "crescer mais e distribuir melhor". O povo angolano está a trabalhar e o país está a avançar.


Quando dizemos isso, queremos assinalar momentos como estes que estamos a viver no Huambo.


Reconstruímos e inauguramos hoje com muito orgulho e satisfação a Barragem Hidroeléctrica do Gove. Isto é uma grande vitória para os angolanos.


Além dos benefícios para o nosso desenvolvimento industrial e para a geração de empregos, vamos ter mais energia para todos. A maior oferta de energia eléctrica é um factor de justiça social que considero da maior importância, porque hoje é a população mais carente, que não tem recursos para comprar um gerador, a mais prejudicada pela falta dessa energia.


O compromisso que assumo perante toda a Nação angolana, em nome do MPLA, é o de implementar o Programa de Investimentos Públicos para aumentar a quantidade de energia eléctrica e a distribuir melhor.


Já concluímos a reconstrução da Barragem do Lomaúm, em Benguela. Temos neste momento capacidade para gerar mil e duzentos ‘megawats’. Queremos aumentar essa capacidade para dois mil trezentos e cinquenta ‘megawats’ em 2014 e para cinco mil ‘megawats’ em 2016.


Vamos interligar os sistemas Norte, Sul e Leste para garantir uma melhor distribuição da energia produzida e satisfazer as necessidades do desenvolvimento industrial e do consumo doméstico.


Precisamos de mais de 17 mil milhões de dólares para esse plano e esse dinheiro sairá do Orçamento Geral do Estado e de empréstimos que o Estado vai contrair. Eu não tenho receio de assumir esse compromisso, porque estou rodeado de quadros capazes de garantir o cumprimento desse plano.


Nas minhas intervenções públicas e na Assembleia Nacional eu digo onde aplicamos o dinheiro do Estado, que é dinheiro do povo! Aliás, todas as receitas do Estado e doações estão no OGE, assim como as despesas que realizamos. Os balanços e as contas são aprovados pelos deputados.


Mas há um conjunto de senhores de uma auto-denominada "oposição radical" que não percebe o que lê ou então apenas finge que lê esses documentos, que são públicos. O Fundo Monetário Internacional, que tem renomados especialistas em finanças e contabilidade, vem a Angola todos os anos, verifica as nossas contas e atesta que estão certas, mas esses senhores trocam os números, porque são troca-tintas, distorcem os factos e levantam calúnias.


Comportam-se como se fossem defensores de interesses estrangeiros, que gostariam de subjugar o povo angolano. Será que esses senhores podem governar Angola? Acho que não!


Viva o MPLA!
Viva o MPLA!
Viva o MPLA!
A Luta Continua e a Vitória é Certa!


O país cresceu e a nossa economia vai crescer cada vez mais com a participação cada vez mais activa do sector privado. O Estado vai continuar a retirar-se da produção de bens e serviços para que esta tarefa seja levada a cabo pelas pequenas, médias e grandes empresas privadas.


Eu assumo, em nome do MPLA, o compromisso de reforçar o apoio de todo o tipo aos empresários angolanos, para que eles tenham empresas fortes que ocupem um grande espaço no nosso mercado. Não são só as grandes empresas estrangeiras, como a Teixeira Duarte, a Odebrecht, a Total-Elf, a Chevron, etc., que devem prosperar e levar grande parte do dinheiro que ganham para os seus países.


Devemos criar as condições para que as empresas privadas angolanas mais capazes cresçam e prosperem também. O dinheiro que elas ganham fica no nosso mercado e, além disso, devemos incentivá-las a fazer mais investimentos, a criar mais empregos e a pagar bem aos seus trabalhadores.


Além disso, devemos também encorajar todos os angolanos que têm poupanças no estrangeiro a depositar o seu dinheiro nos nossos bancos e a realizar aqui os seus investimentos. Nós não fazemos uma política contra os angolanos ricos. Pelo contrário. Queremos que eles contribuam para o desenvolvimento nacional.


Nós levamos a cabo uma política firme de luta contra a fome e a pobreza, que vai ser intensificada no próximo mandato, porque a nossa meta é a construção de uma sociedade de bem-estar social, sem pobreza! É um grande desafio, mas podemos vencê-lo trabalhando todos juntos.


CAROS COMPATRIOTAS


No seu próximo mandato, o MPLA tem a intenção de aplicar um programa administrativo, económico e social de intervenção no Reino do Bailundo. Essa será a primeira experiência governamental de reconhecimento do papel dos costumes, instituições, usos e tradições das comunidades tradicionais como fundamentais na construção da Nação, na coesão social e na afirmação da cidadania angolana.


Essa será uma forma de dignificar essas comunidades e as autoridades tradicionais, como parte da memória colectiva, da história comum, das raízes seculares e das culturas que enriquecem a unidade que a Constituição traduz. O Reino do Bailundo servirá, pois, como experiência piloto, a ser estendida posteriormente a outros reinos do Norte, Leste, Sul, Sudeste e Centro Norte do país.


É, pois, com a confirmação no próximo dia 31 de Agosto do voto de confiança no MPLA que este vai poder continuar a materializar o seu projecto de governação, que interpreta fielmente os mais firmes e profundos anseios do povo angolano.


Uma vez mais a população do Huambo estará na primeira linha da nossa vitória!


VIVA O MPLA!

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

MPLA official speaks of party's seriousness, responsible posture

 

Luanda – The secretary for information of the ruling MPLA, Rui Falcão Pinto de Andrade, said last Monday in Luanda that his party is an organisation that is serious, responsible and with a sense of statehood, reason why it will accept the results of the August 31 election. 

Speaking to the private LAC radio, an interview that served to assess the party’s fourteen days of campaigning, Rui Falcão said that the MPLA is prepared to win or lose this year’s election, because in democracy all the results are possible.

"In democracy we have to accept all the results and respect the social values. The MPLA is a serene, serious, responsible party with a sense of statehood", he stressed.

As regards the party’s governance programme for the 2012/2017 period, Rui Falcão said that it is being presented to all the groups so that they know what the MPLA has done and what has been programmed to be done.

ANGOP has learnt that the electoral programme of the MPLA includes fundamental points such as peace consolidation, strengthening of democracy, preservation of national unity and cohesion, safeguarding the basic premises for development and improvement of Angolan people’s living standards.  

In the last election, held in 2008, the MPLA got 81.64 per cent of the votes.

Friday, August 10, 2012

MPLA parceiro certo da juventude angolana, por Augusto Menezes, jurista e teólogo

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Luanda, 08/08 - A juventude angolana constitui a base fundamental na reconstrução de uma nação, virada para o desenvolvimento de uma Angola cada vez melhor, para cada um dos seus filhos, sem distinção da cor da pele, de religião ou cultura.

A juventude angolana é e será, sempre, parceiro do MPLA e seu LÍDER e peça principal para uma Angola com um futuro certo. O MPLA maioritário e seu LÍDER é totalmente diferente de todos os partidos da oposição pelas seguintes razões:

O Manifesto Eleitoral 2012 do MPLA e seu LÍDER é o mais completo, porque abarca todos os estratos da sociedade angolana e a continuação da reconstrução nacional.

Porque o MPLA e seu LÍDER formaram, construíram, reconstruíram, reabilitaram diversas infra-estruturas e darão continuidade, para que o progresso começado continue a crescer entre os angolanos. Por isso, o MPLA aposta na distribuição paulatina dos bens a todo povo, de modo a crescer mais e a distribuir melhor.

O MPLA e seu LÍDER estão virados para a resolução dos problemas essenciais do povo, melhorar, a curto e médio prazo, a qualidade de vida de todos os angolanos.

O MPLA e seu LÍDER, experientes em governação, não irão começar de novo, não irão aprender a governar, mas darão continuidade a todos os projectos sociais, como a continuação da construção de casas para a juventude, a continuação do melhoramento do saneamento básico, a continuação do acesso da população à água potável, aumentando e distribuindo com qualidade, continuação do fornecimento de energia eléctrica entre as populações urbanas, suburbanas e rurais, continuação da reconstrução das estradas interprovinciais, de modo aproximar, cada vez mais, as populações.

O MPLA e seu LÍDER são a juventude angolana, que prima pela paz, pela democracia, pela estabilidade social entre todos os angolanos, de Cabinda ao Cunene, do mar ao leste.

O MPLA e seu LÍDER são a juventude, com princípios claros, para uma Angola unida e cada vez mais próspera.

O MPLA e seu LÍDER são a juventude compreensível, que sabe esperar a sua vez, que sabe que tudo faz-se sem pressa, devagar e bem e que, a curto e/ou médio prazo, todos terão as condições necessárias, porque o MPLA e seu LÍDER apostam em crescer mais e distribuir melhor.

O MPLA e seu LÍDER são para a juventude o garante total da estabilidade política, social e económica na continuidade da PAZ e DEMOCRACIA.

O MPLA e seu LÍDER são, para a juventude, o parceiro certo, porque em 2002 trouxeram a PAZ, consolidaram a democracia e as instituições do Estado, reforçaram a unidade nacional, a estabilidade macroeconómica em todo o país.

O MPLA e seu LÍDER, desde os primeiros tempos, estiveram ao lado da juventude, dando ensino gratuito, da primária até ao ensino universitário.

Com o MPLA e seu LÍDER, a juventude angolana sempre testemunhou e participou, de forma directa, na reabilitação e construção de vários serviços, como pontes, fábricas, diversas estradas, construção de várias centralidades, barragens, caminhos-de-ferro, recuperação de vias principais e secundárias, em todo o país, originando, deste modo, vários empregos para a juventude.

Com o MPLA e seu LÍDER, a juventude está ciente e segura de que Angola está a sair, aos poucos, do nível de pobreza extrema, para um nível razoável, verificando-se o aumento de indústrias em quase todo o país.

Com o MPLA e seu LÍDER, a juventude diz não às arruaças, não à confusão, não a tumultos, não à guerra, mais sim à PAZ, à democracia, ao civismo, ao amor ao próximo, sim à dignidade da pessoa humana, que sejam respeitadas a ordem jurídica e a Constituição.

Com o MPLA e seu LÍDER, a juventude diz não aos assaltos à mão armada, não à vingança, não ao ódio, mas sim à sua contribuição à reconstrução nacional e ao bem-estar das populações.

Com o MPLA e seu LÍDER, a juventude sente-se mais forte, coesa e dinâmica em dar a sua mão para mudar a vida de todos os angolanos, sejam eles residentes no país ou no estrangeiro.

É com o MPLA e seu LÍDER que a juventude angolana conta e vê o presente com olhos no futuro, porque o MPLA e seu LÍDER irão continuar a melhorar a qualidade de vida de todos os angolanos, com mais emprego, melhores salários, mais poder de compra e poder de consumo, mais acesso a serviços públicos, como a saúde, a educação, a segurança.

No entanto, a juventude tem consciência de que, apesar de haver progresso significativo, praticamente em todos os sectores da vida angolana, ainda há muito a fazer, para que ela possa ver satisfeitas as suas necessidades e os seus direitos básicos.

Por isso, para dar continuidade a estes grandiosos projectos, a juventude angolana aposta no MPLA e no seu LÍDER, para, no dia 31 de Agosto, a vitória ser é uma certeza. E o nº 2, no Boletim de Voto, é a posição da maioria.

Viva o MPLA e seu LÍDER, o MPLA é a juventude, a juventude é o MPLA.

Tuesday, July 31, 2012

War in Syria: Iran Warns Turkey of “Changing Game Rules” in Syria

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A pro-Syrian Arab diplomatic source confirmed that Turkey has received, during the past couple of hours, a strict Iranian letter warning it of "changing the game rules" in Syria.

In an interview with Syrian daily al-Watan, the Arab source said that this warning comes as a clear response to the latest threats posed by Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyeb Erdogan, claiming that his country will target Kurdish combatants inside the Syrian territories.

Also, the Ankara-based Arab diplomat, whose country's government supports the Syrian al-Assad regime, said that Ankara had been preparing, in agreement with Washington, for a military interference in the Syrian crisis; under the pretext of Kurdish population.

However, Iran drew a line for the Turkish dreams, and informed it that any attack on the Syrian territories will witness a harsh attack; as Iran might put into force the mutual defense agreement signed with Syria, the source iterated.

Furthermore, the Arab diplomat went on to say that Turkey agreed with the US that a limited military interference in North Syria, especially in Aleppo, might introduce a buffer zone to be protected by the gangs funded and armed by Turkey, in cooperation with Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

The said scenario however would be implemented only if the Syrian refugees in that area were evacuated, especially as they have become a burden on Erdogan's government; although they were supposed to be exploited to lead a UN resolution, imposing international sanctions on Syria.

Alepo 31/07/2012

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

SYRIA: REGIME CHANGE AND SMART POWER

The rise and fall of Turkey's Erdogan
By M K Bhadrakumar


Israel's emergence from the woodwork can signal only one thing: the Syrian crisis is moving towards the decisive phase. The lights have been switched on in the operation theatre and the carving of Syria is beginning. What is going to follow won't be a pretty sight at all since the patient is not under anesthesia, and the chief surgeon prefers to lead from behind while sidekicks do the dirty job.
So far, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have done the maximum they could to destabilize Syria and remove the regime headed President Bashar al-Assad. But Bashar is still holding out. Israeli expertise is now needed to complete the unfinished business.
Someone is needed to plunge a sharp knife deep into Bashar's back. Jordan's king can't do the job; he measures up only to Bashar's knees. The Saudi and Qatari sheikhs with their ponderous, flabby body are not used to physical activity; the North Atlantic Treaty Organization prefers to be left alone, having burnt its fingers in Libya with a bloody operation that borders on war crime. That leaves Turkey.
In principle, Turkey has the muscle power, but intervention in Syria is fraught with risks and one of the enduring legacies of Kemal Ataturk is that Turkey avoids taking risks. Besides, Turkey's military is not quite in top form.
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also unable to carry the majority opinion within Turkey in favor of a war in Syria, and he is navigating a tricky path himself, trying to amend his country's constitution and make himself a real sultan - as if French President Francois Hollande were to combine the jobs of Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault and Socialist Party chief Martine Aubry.
Obviously, Erdogan can't risk his career. Besides, there are imponderables - a potential backlash from the Alawite minority within Turkey (which resents the surge of Salafism under Erdogan's watch) and the perennial danger of walking into a trap set up by militant Kurds.
Al-Jazeera interviewed a leader of the Alawite sect in Turkey last week who expressed concern over the increasingly sectarian tone of Syria's internal strife inspired by Salafist Sunnis. They fear a Salafist surge within Turkey. The Alawites in Turkey see Assad "trying to hold together a tolerant, pluralist Syria".


Contingency plans
But all that is becoming irrelevant. The New York Times reported on Friday, quoting American officials in Washington, that US President Barack Obama is "increasing aid to the rebels and redoubling efforts to rally a coalition of like-minded countries to forcibly bring down the [Syrian] government".
It further reported that the CIA operatives who are based in southern Turkey "for several weeks" will continue with their mission to create violence against the Syrian regime. Meanwhile, the US and Turkey will also be working on putting together a post-Assad "provisional government" in Syria.
Accordingly, the leaders of Syria's proscribed Muslim Brotherhood held a four-day conclave in Istanbul and announced plans on Friday to create an "Islamic party". "We are ready for the post-Assad era, we have plans for the economy, the courts, politics", the Brotherhood's spokesman announced.
The New York Times said Washington is in close contact with Ankara and Tel Aviv to discuss "a broad range of contingency plans" over "how to manage a Syrian government collapse".
The emergent operational plan is that while Ankara steps up the covert operations inside Syria (bankrolled by Saudi Arabia and Qatar), Israel will cross the border into Syria from the south and attack Bashar's military and degrade its capacity to resist the Turkish threat.
Turkey has stepped up the psywar, projecting through the media that the Syrian regime is already tottering. Turkish commentators are spreading the word. Murat Yetkin of the establishment daily Hurriyet quoted a Turkish official as saying,

Our people [Turkish intelligence] in the field are observing that the urban majority, which has preferred to remain neutral so far, has begun to support the opposition groups. We think the Syrian people have begun to perceive that the administration is breaking up.

But such riveting stories also reflect the Turkish establishment's worry that the Syrian regime is still not showing signs of capitulation despite all the hits it took from the "rebels".


Mission to Moscow
Erdogan's best hope is that the Turkish intelligence could orchestrate some sort of "palace coup" in Damascus in the coming days or weeks. What suits Ankara will be to have Bashar replaced by a transitional structure that retains elements of the existing Baathist state structure, which could facilitate an orderly transfer of power to a new administration - that is to say, ideally, a transition not different from what followed in Egypt once Hosni Mubarak exited.
But Erdogan is unsure whether Turkey can swing an Egypt-like coup in Damascus. His dash to Moscow last Wednesday aimed at sounding out Moscow if a new and stable transitional structure could be put together in Damascus through some kind of international cooperation. (Obama lent his weight to Erdogan's mission by telephoning Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday to discuss Syria.)
But curiously, just before Erdogan went into his scheduled meeting with Putin in the Kremlin, a massive terrorist attack took place in Damascus, killing the the Syrian defense minister and its intelligence chief. In the event, Moscow politely heard him out and assured Erdogan it would make a clinical separation between Russia's long-term strategic ties with Turkey and the Syrian issue. At any rate, the Russian stance remained unchanged, as evident from its veto at the United Security Council a week later.
Clearly, Moscow sees that the end game is underway in Syria. In an interview with the Russia Today on Friday, Russia's ambassador to the UN, Vitaly Churkin, spoke in exceptionally strong terms about what is happening. He said the Western strategy is to "whip us tensions in and around Syria at every opportunity".
Churkin said derisively, "There is much more geopolitics in their policy in Syria than humanism." Churkin also brought in Iran: "I would not rule out that then they would move on to Iran ... And this growing tension between Iran, the West and the Saudis is not helpful."
Prior to the visit to Moscow, Erdogan also travelled to Beijing, which also senses that the US is closing the deal on Syria. The Global Times newspaper commented in an editorial on Friday that "It's likely that the Assad administration will be overthrown ... chances of a political solution are becoming increasingly small ... changes in Syria might come rapidly."
US National Security Advisor Tom Donilon is travelling to Beijing to explore if the Chinese stance on Syria can be moderated.
Both Russia and China view the Erdogan era favorably for the upward curve in their ties with Turkey. Russia won a $20-$25 billion contract to build nuclear power plants in Turkey. China pulled in Turkey as a dialogue partner for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Turkey hosted a second military exercise with China recently and is aspiring to be a bridge between NATO and Beijing.


A man for all seasons
However, both Russia and China would factor in that as a "new cold war" builds up, Washington expects Turkey to get back into the fold and play its due role as ally in a vast swathe of land stretching from the Black Sea to the Caucasus and the Caspian and all the way to Central Asia. In the ultimate analysis, the US holds many trump cards, finessed through the Cold war era, to manipulate Turkish policies. This is quite evident from the centrality attached by Washington to the Iraqi Kurdish leader, Massoud Barzani, in the overall US strategy.
Obama received Barzani in the White House recently. Barzani has become a "lynchpin" in the US-Turkish policies on Syria. This was within months of ExxonMobil signing up in October to develop the fabulous oil fields located in the Kurdistan region controlled by Barzani, ignoring protests from Baghdad that such a deal with a provincial authority bypassing the central government would violate Iraq's sovereignty.
Last week, the US oil giant Chevron announced that it too has acquired an 80% controlling share in a company operating in the region covering a combined area of 1,124 square kilometers that is under Barzani's control.
The entry of ExxonMobile and Chevron is a game-changer in the regional politics over Syria. The point is, the best transportation route to the world market for the massive oil and gas deposits in Kurdistan will be via the Syrian port city of Latakia on the eastern Mediterranean. Indeed, an altogether new dimension to the US-Turkish game plan on Syria comes into view.
Siyah Kalem, a Turkish engineering and construction company, has bid for the transportation of natural gas from Kurdistan. Evidently, somewhere in the subsoil, the interests of the Anatolian corporate business (which has links with Turkey's ruling Islamist party) and the country's foreign policy orientations toward Syria and Iraq are converging. The US and Turkish interests overlap in the geopolitics of northern Iraq's energy reserves.
But Barzani is not only a business partner for Washington and Ankara but also a key agent who could leverage Turkey's Kurdish problem. With Washington's backing, he has launched a project to bring together the various Kurdish factions - Turkish, Iraqi and Syrian - on to a new political track.
He held a meeting of the Kurdish factions in Arbil last month. Plainly, Barzani tried to bribe the leaders of various Kurdish factions with funds provided from Ankara. He claims he has succeeded in reconciling the different Kurdish groups in Syria. (The Kurdish insurgency in Turkey is led by ethnic Syrian Kurds.) He also claims to have persuaded the Syrian Kurds to snap their links with Bashar and line up with the Syrian opposition.
These tidings from Arbil have a vital bearing on Erdogan's future course on Syria. As a prominent analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Soner Cagaptay, pointed out recently, the bottom line is that "Syria's restless and well-organized Kurdish minority doesn't for the most part trust Turkey."


Salafism on Israeli wings
However, in the final analysis, only Israel can resolve Erdogan's dilemma. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak stated over the weekend, "Syria has advanced anti-aircraft missiles, surface-to-surface missiles and elements of chemical weapons. I directed the IDF [Israeli Defense Forces] to prepare for a situation where we will need to consider the possibility of an attack."
Barak added that the "moment [Bashar] starts to fall, we [Israel] will conduct intelligence monitoring and will liaise with other agencies." He spoke after a secret visit by Donilon to Israel the previous weekend. Close on the heels of Donilon's consultations, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton travelled to Tel Aviv after a historic meeting in Cairo with the newly elected President Mohammed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood, who assured Washington that he wouldn't contemplate creating any problems for Israel in a conceivable future.
Barak's disclosure tears apart the thin veil of indifference that Tel Aviv so far maintained over the Syrian developments. What emerges, in retrospect, is that Washington kept Israel in abeyance for the ripe moment to physically demolish Bashar's war machinery, an enterprise that Erdogan is unwilling or incapable of undertaking.
Most certainly, Erdogan was in the loop that he was going to partner Barak, but being a shrewd politician he kept up an appearance of agonizing publicly over the Syrian crisis - while, of course, covertly fueling it.
Simply put, Washington has outwitted Moscow and Beijing. It kept assuring Russia and China that a military intervention by the US all by itself or a Libya-style NATO operation was the last thing on Obama's mind. No doubt, Obama kept its word.
What is unfolding is a startlingly refreshing sight - Salafism riding the wings of the Israeli air force and landing in Damascus. Erdogan will now set out with renewed vigor to shake up the Bashar tree in Damascus, while any day from now Barak will begin chopping off the tree's branches in a lightning sweep.
Erdogan and Barak will make the Bashar tree so naked and helpless that it will realize the futility of standing upright any more. There is no "military intervention" involved here, no NATO operations, no Libya-like analogy can be drawn. Nor is Erdogan to order his army to march into Syria.
Secretary of State Clinton would say this is the "smart power". In a magnificent essay titled "The Art of Smart Power" penned by her last week, as she surveyed the curious twist to the tale of the Arab Spring, Clinton wrote that the US is nowadays "leading in new ways". [1]
Clinton underscored that US is expanding its "foreign-policy toolbox [to] integrate every asset and partner, and fundamentally change the way we [US] do business ... [the] common thread running through all our efforts is a commitment to adapt America's global leadership for the needs of a changing world."
At the end of the day, Erdogan will bite the bullet, which is greased with pork fat. The plain truth is that Israel is going to complete the messy job for him in Syria.
Erdogan has no choice but to accept that he belongs to Washington's "toolbox" - nothing more, nothing less. He was never destined for the role to lead the Muslim Middle East. The West was merely pandering to his well-known vanity. That role is Washington's exclusive prerogative.


Note:
1. The art of smart power, New Statesman, July 18, 2012.
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.
(Copyright 2012 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)

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